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| Interviews@3LC - Design | |
| Monday, 21 August 2006 | |
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Trend Forecasting: It's not a job, it's a lifestyle
Anne Lise Kjaer is the founder and managing director of kjaer global , an internationally-recognized trend forecasting agency based in London. Specializing in long-term trends in society, kjaer global identifies and visualizes the possible future impacts of these trends on her client’s specific industry. Kjaer global's many clients include IKEA, Sony, Nokia, and Unilever, and kjaer global's trend books are a valuable commodity to those who need to be in the know. Anne Lise comes from a design background in fashion. She left that industry because she was disillusioned with the unoriginality and shallowness of the fashion industry. “I actually wrote an article about how shallow I find the whole fashion industry, and how fed up I was with copying. It really made quite a few people angry, but it’s what I felt!” she said laughing. She fears she may be at times too direct, something she attributes to growing up in Western Denmark, but she’s so positive and such an infectious optimist, I can’t imagine anyone ever being angry with her for very long, if at all! After leaving the fashion industry, Anne Lise used her sensitivity for feeling out color and design trends to form a trend forecasting agency, kjaer global, first in Copenhagen in 1988, then to Hamburg, and finally to London in 1992, where it remains. Like herself, her team is made up of professionals with multidisciplinary backgrounds, like design + sociology, IT + philosophy, television + product design. Anne Lise believes that these are the people with heightened curiosity and ability to explore and discover new cultures, and feel out trends. It’s worth noting that Anne Lise doesn’t view what she does as a job, but a lifestyle. And it’s a lifestyle that, even after 17 years, she still feels very lucky to have created and carried forward for herself. “Every time we get a new project or a new client, I still can’t believe it! I think that I’m so lucky to have been chosen to work with this client or that, so lucky to be in this field! I think that’s what life is really about—making every day a holiday. You have to be passionate about what you do,” she said. As part of the passion she feels about letting people know about the work that kjaer global does for its 100-client large portfolio, she took a few minutes to explain a little about how trend forecasting works from both the corporate and consumer side. She also makes a brief introduction to her “baby”, Meaningful Consumption, which will be more fully developed in a series of interviews designed and conducted by kjaer global leading up their annual Time to Think conference in Copenhagen in October. Anne Lise has generously allowed this interview series with the Conference Speakers to be republished here at Three Layer Cake.
Conceptual trend forecasting:
What happens if you get it wrong? Can you get it wrong? How do you ensure you’re right? At kjaer global we are working to forecast trends 10 to 15 years ahead with leading world brands such as Toyota, IKEA, Nokia and SONY. The way we map out future consumer needs is to use our holistic approach, combining research into scientific, social, emotional and spiritual trends to see the whole picture. Of course, you have to take it that little bit further - inspiration is vital to all new product and concept developments. It is always possible to get trends research wrong, but in my experience this invariably happens when companies are arrogant and act too fast or work too far ahead without a tried and trusted methodology. There are no shortcuts in my business. The way to get predictions right is to follow the recipe - research, research, research. This is why our 2 Global Influences books about the future consumer have become consumer icons – they simply work on many levels to truly explore the future consumer. We speak about the Hunters and the Gatherers and their universe whether they tend to be rational or more emotional.
Do trends function a little like exchange rates in that they can be influenced by expectations? If we expect emotional consumption to be the next concept on which we should focus, will it become the next concept on which to focus? How much of trends are consumer driven and how much are corporation driven? Yes we are in the business of setting trends, but the only way to do this successfully is to put the consumer in the centre and chart their future expectations. We ensure success by always focusing on the end users and ensuring we give them what they want.
For that reason
I would say that trends don't work like exchange rates, which are notoriously
volatile and hard to predict. With trends there is a close and symbiotic
relationship between corporation/producer and end user. There are social trends
and business trends but over-riding trends - the ones that register - rely on
both corporation and consumer 'singing off the same hymn sheet'. Successful new products are inspired by consumer
needs rather than boardroom edicts.
I think it's
crucial to remind ourselves that people only remember the trends that did
become the 'next big thing' - never the legions of products that failed because
consumers simply didn't like, want or need them. Trends today: Emotional Consumption (Meaningful Consumption) Emotional Consumption is foremost about people whose outlook on life is focused on meaning rather than materialism. This is an oxymoron, isn’t it ('Consumption' is materialism)? In your Emotional Consumption brief you describe the attributes of the emotional brand, but what are the attributes of a product intended for the person who focuses more on meaning than materialism? Or does it even matter, as long as the brand fulfills the person’s needs? Think beyond shopping here. Consumption is more than materialism because our every action in living is in some way an act of consuming - even if we are just talking about the air we breathe. Consuming is a natural by-product of existence, but the manner in which we consume is a society-wide issue right now. Put simply, we don't have to take more than our fair share of the oxygen! In outlining the attributes of the Emotional Brand I am describing products and services whose attributes focus more on meaning than materialism. These are things that empower, educate, illuminate - provide something more than the sum of their parts. Emotional Consumers want to feel that they are gaining something, but also that they are enabled to give something back. For instance, Innocent smoothies or Camper shoes make a virtue out of transparency in manufacturing and ethics - and this is something that consumers are happy to buy into. So this becomes more than just a smoothie and a pair of shoes. This is a classic example of Emotional Branding. We have also seen the rise of Yeppies (young, experimenting perfection seekers), who are a world away from the Yuppies of the 1980s. First described by the Social Issues Research Centre, their aim is to collect life experiences, rather than worldly goods.
Global consumer behavior: Differences across markets
It's fair to say that Western Europe has a reputation for being exclusive and original - perhaps a bit more edgy. Asia is more interested in materialism at present and the USA is polarized - it's such a vast and diverse country. But these are generalizations… The companies we work with deal on a global scale and my experience and research shows that in every society around the world there is a top segment that think very much alike in that they are ethical, careful consumers who look for high standards in every area of life. Western Europe and Scandinavia - and parts of the USA - have a higher proportion of this style of consumer right now than Eastern Europe or Asia, where consumerism is still a relatively new and exciting prospect. But things are moving so fast - particularly in China - that we will see massive changes and perhaps fewer disparities a few years down the line.
Also remember
that trends can and do come from all areas of the world - often from surprising
quarters. For instance the USA has a
reputation for being a gas-guzzling nation, yet go to Portland, Oregon and you
will find one of the most forward thinking public transit systems in the world. Time Capsule: Which example from each of the following areas (food, design, color, industry) would you put in a time capsule today that say the most about you and the times we live in?
How does being a trend forecaster affect your life outside of the office? Over the years, have you noticed a change in the way you interact with people and everyday surroundings? A change in the way you react?
My job is not a job, it's a lifestyle. I am continually looking forward in my day-to-day business but you can't live your own personal life in the future. My solution is to take time to savour the present - and try to make every day feel like a holiday.
As far as
interaction goes, I guess I'm much more aware of meaning, especially in a
society so full of mad and meaningless over-consumption. One direct consequence
of this awareness is that I have become a keen recycler and I always try to
take the ethical route with my personal consumption. What I preach I like to
practice - and I have been preaching that particular message over many years! What motivates you? People with good energy who believe that their glass is half full and rather than half empty.
It’s hard to say because I’m not really into design icons because I try to get whatever is recycled or reused! But the closest I can think of would probably be Scandinavian design. Our goal at kjaer global is to come up with something that is simple and long-lasting, efficient and easy to understand. When I come up with a concept, it’s something that you should want to look at in fifteen years time. So I’d say the sustainability and appeal over the years of Scandinavian design is perhaps a good metaphor.
The space and its energy.
Strawberries (preferably with cream and sugar). They remind me of my childhood in Denmark.
A white painting by Koushna Navabi - I'm still paying it off.
A 1950s pastel
coloured globe which I love because I find the concept of mapping out things so
fascinating and mind blowing – it makes me dream. It's in my bedroom.
Loads of leather pouffes - great for creative thinking and good for healthy relaxation.
None – most of my inspiration comes from inside when I am outside walking in nature.
The words: 'future' is somehow in the title…
My son - he's got all the good energies and curiosity you could want from a travel companion.
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